1. A Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario, as perceived by the press and EIA
2. A Scenario constrained by fossil fuel resource limits only, assuming that there are no issues with Liebig's Law of the Minimum, or reduced demand because of high prices, or international credit issues. It is assumed that wind, solar, and nuclear will continue to grow, at the rates assumed by EIA forecasts. I also show a related scenario with coal phase out.
3. A Crash Scenario, in which some combination of credit collapse, reduced demand because of high prices, and Liebig's Law of the Minimum (relating to oil) cause demand to collapse very quickly.
in the time remaining, to help us understand how the man-made system of capitalism will lead to the extinction of our human species, and so many others.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Thinking about Planning for the Future
from The Oil Drum website. The author looks at various scenarios re energy use over the next 40 years, and the implications for planning.