Thursday, July 22, 2010

Latin America: Climate Change Swing States

by Janet Redman from Foreign Policy in Focus

The author reports on US preparations for the upcoming climate change meeting in Mexico at the end of this year.
The United States clearly spelled out its agenda for the international climate negotiations in the strategic communications objectives  accidentally leaked in April. At the top of the list was "reinforc[ing] the perception (my emphasis) that the U.S. is constructively engaged in UN negotiations in an effort to produce a global regime to combat climate change." The document also compels the U.S. negotiating team to "create a clear understanding of the CA's [Copenhagen Accord's] standing and the importance of operationalizing ALL elements."

The Copenhagen Accord embodies all of the major political demands of the United States. Binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been scaled back to a voluntary "pledge and review" process. The pledges made so far fall short of the 25-40 percent cuts by rich countries that scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say are necessary to avoid climate catastrophe. Missing those targets carries no legal consequences.
The author concludes the article with this very perceptive statement:
This climate change debate is about much more than ecological stability. Global climate treaties will determine which countries' fossil-fuel-based growth will be constrained and by how much. The resulting international agreements and domestic policies will determine the relative importance of natural resources in the global economy. Because minerals, forests, agricultural soils, and water are not spread evenly across the planet, securing access to these and other resources will be — and in many regions already are — at the center of the geopolitical struggle precipitated by climate change.